Ask AC-U-KWIK: What is the Aircraft Bluebook Marketline?

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Disparate Pre-Owned Aircraft Markets Emerge

Why does the pre-owned market appear to be good, bad and confused? The answer is the closed traffic pattern around the economy. As the recovery stumbles along, confidence remains shaky. We can’t break out of the pattern.

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Business Aircraft Market Recovering Despite Economic Woes

While doubts persist about the United States in an economic recovery, the business aviation sector is not following suit. For instance, late-model, large-cabin, long-range aircraft are selling at or above values published in the Aircraft Bluebook.

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Pre-Owned Aircraft Trading Continues at Modest Pace

Trading in the pre-owned aircraft market continued at a modest pace as the third quarter came to a close and aligned itself on fourth-quarter activity for 2010.

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Pre-Owned Aircraft Transactions Increase While Values Decrease

There should be some optimism in our industry. Buyers and sellers are coming to terms with what the market will bear for a given aircraft. And with that, the pre-owned aircraft market is seeing more completed deals. The gridlock of available inventory is starting to show some movement. Values on the other hand remain soft with little signs of recovery.

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Used Aircraft Market Shows Signs of Better Days Ahead

Finally, the pre-owned aircraft market moved in a positive direction in the first quarter of 2010. Late-model, large-cabin, long-range aircraft were selling at or better than values published in the Aircraft Bluebook.

External factors such as increased sales, a slight decline of available inventory and world market competition could all be considered causes for the improvement. Although this early indication of a slow recovery is in progress, it is too early to celebrate. Any positive sign going forward is far better than where the used aircraft market has been.

With the exception of the late-model, large-cabin class, most of the other business aircraft are not yet recovering in value. The good news is that values are showing more stability. Market activity is on the rise leaving a more optimistic perception that values are not exposed to the risks experienced in the last twenty months.

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Pre-Owned Aircraft Market Distracted by Bottom Feeders

In the pre-owned aircraft market, bottom feeders are like red herrings. Bottom feeders — corporate aircraft that have no significant issues with their history, maintenance or condition and are marketed below Bluebook wholesale values — continue to be great opportunities for the fortunate few who buy without a blink of an eye. They also lead buyers into a false perception of value that only competition in the market can correct.

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Aircraft Prices Remain Stable While Signs of Recovery Glimmer in Dubai

Entering its home stretch, 2009 certainly has been a forgettable year for general aviation. The losses in value for most owners of corporate aircraft have been significant and, at times, have even been heartbreaking. However, something is happening out there. While economists predict an economic recovery will be achingly slow, some aircraft values are moving up. The change is barely perceptible and does not apply to every market segment. But inventories are finally contracting instead of expanding, and dealers are again becoming cautiously optimistic.

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Aircraft Values Neutralize After Descent

Aircraft values reported in the previous quarter were in a spiral dive, but the economy’s pilot now appears to have neutralized the rapid descent. For the most part, values have arrived at ground level. Inventories have shown signs of stability with little or no growth in units for sale. Other market indicators show signs of neutralization as well. Aircraft dealers and brokers report that interest has increased. Phones are ringing more with potential buyers on the line. Compared to the 2005 baseline real gross domestic product, GDP declined 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2009 after declining 6.4 percent in the first quarter. These indicators support the signs of neutralization in the marketplace, though the used aircraft market has no reason to rally.

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Market Perception Is Key to Current Aircraft Values

With the warm rays of the summer sun approaching, the current economic condition of values for pre-owned aircraft is anything but sunny. The aircraft market has suffered its greatest loss in value since the corporate jet became a part of American enterprise with its introduction in the 1960s. As with any commodity traded in a free market, one that is not restricted or regulated by government controls on pricing, the core element of value is in human perception. For aircraft values, perception of worth is always on the leading edge of value.

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